Posts Tagged ‘Joe Manchin’

Manchin Wins in West Virginia

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

The live blogging portion of the evening has just begun.

Joe Manchin just took the WV Senate seat vacated by Robert Byrd.

Hard to see how the Republicans take the Senate now.

They’ve gotta run the table in the rest of the country and then take both California and Washington.

As Dana Carvey would have said: “Not…Gonna…Do it.”

Milazz 2010 Senate Primer

Sunday, October 24th, 2010

With nine days to go, it looks like the Republicans are poised to take the House. The math in the Senate looks like more of a long shot.

The current Senate makeup is 59-41, counting Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, so Republicans would have to net 10 seats to get to 51, since a 50-50 tie would be broken by Joe Biden.  Below I look at the races where Republicans have to prevail in order to take control.

Probable Republican Pickups

Arkansas, North Dakota and Indiana have long been considered Republican pickups, with the Republican candidates leading in opinion polls for months. These races are basically over at this point and can safely be considered Republican pickups.

Lean Republican

Wisconsin

In one of the more puzzling results of the year, Russ Feingold has trailed badly behind plastics manufacturer (I can’t help but think of The Graduate) and Tea Party candidate, Ron Johnson. A few months ago, I characterized this as a Democratic Firewall seat, based on Feingold’s history of bucking party and common wisdom as well as Wisconsin’s traditional voting patterns.  Wisconsin has been true blue for a while now and has a history of electing fiery populist Democrats (dating back to ”Fightin” Bob LaFolette during the Progressive Era). In recent polling Feingold has trailed by up to 8 points, with Johnson polling over 50% in some polls. This is very bad news for Feingold at this late hour, and the race would have qualified as a Probable Republican Pickup just a week ago. However, just last week week two polls came out showing Feingold closing the gap, so I err on the side of caution and include this as a Lean Republican seat.

Pennsylvania 

In another race where biography would seem to indicate a different result, former Congressman and Admiral Joe Sestak has consistently trailed former Congressman and free market libertarian derivatives trader Pat Toomey for almost the entire year. But in what seems to be a national trend of poll tightening in Senate Races,  Sestak has pulled even with Toomey or is showing a small lead. Having pulled even, Sestak hopes the Pennsylvania Democratic machine can carry him over the finish line. 

Colorado

Tea Party favorite Ken Buck has generally led appointed Senator Michael Bennett by 2-5 points since the primaries. This race has tightened in recent weeks as Bennett has surged slightly and Ken Buck has stepped on his message a few times. A new Denver Post poll out today has the race a dead heat, but Buck should still be considered a slight favorite here.

Tossups 

Nevada

The nastiest, most high profile race in the country has to be in Nevada, where the Least Charismatic Man in America continues to be locked in a tight race against the Crazy Cat Lady from your Old Neighborhood. The fact that Harry Reid hasn’t been able to put the Tea Party Fringe Candidate Sharron Angle out of her misery is a testament to how much Nevadans hate their sitting senator. This is probably the most polled race in the country and it seems like they alternate leads in every other poll. Angle’s up by a couple of points now, but all indications are that this race will go down to the wire.

In Illinois, the voters face another Faustian bargain as Mark Kirk, a former Republican Congressman who is most famous for lying about his military record during the Gulf War takes on Alexi Giannoulias, who is most famous for his family’s shady savings and loan which went belly up early this year. On Meet the Press, Kirk defended his exaggerations about his military experience while Giannoulias put himself in the running for the most cringeworthy political statements in history when he basically admitted that he knew he was loaning money to mobsters when he worked at his father’s bank 4 years ago. This race is another that is too close to call, with Kirk mostly maintaining a one to two point lead over Giannoulias for the past few months, but Giannoulias showing some signs of life in the past few weeks. Another race where turnout will be key.

West Virginia

The addition of West Virginia as a possible Republican pickup has kept the Republicans in the game. Here, popular governor Mike Manchin is taking on another perennial Republican loser, John Raese, in a Special Election for the seat of held by the late Robert Byrd. In another example of how ignorance sells in this country, Raese has made a point of pointing out that he can’t pronounce non Anglo names, recently calling Energy Secretary  Dr. Steven Chu, Dr. Chow Mein (Stay classy John Raese!).

 This seat was initially assumed a safe Democratic seat because of the popularity of Manchin, but in recent weeks, Raese surged into a lead over Manchin with a clever campaign which acknowledges Manchin’s popularity as Governor, but agues that he would become a rubber stamp for Obama and Pelosi if he were to go to Washington.  The polling in this race has been all over the map, with polls within days of each other exibiting violent swings.

Democratic Firewall Seats

If the Republicans were to sweep all of the above races, they would still need to take one more seat to get to 51. The two most obvious seats are the generally reliable blue states of Washington and California, where two Democratic women from the 1992 “Year of the Woman” class are facing tough challenges.

Washington

In Washington, Senator Patti Murray faces Dino Rossi, another perennial Republican challenger who narrowly lost a race for Governor in 2004 and then lost by a more substantial margin in 2008. This race has bounced around a bit, but Murray has held a small lead for the past few weeks. At this point, Nate Silver ranks this race as an 85% chance of a Murray win.

California

Liberal stalwart Barbara Boxer, another Year of the Woman Alumnus, has yet to put away former Hewlet Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, but she has led her in the polls by margins from 1% to 8% since early September. Although Boxer’s inability to poll about 50% has been cited as a bad sign for her, a Republican pickup here, while possible, seems unlikely.

Lean Republican Hold

While Democrats are on defense in almost all of the swing seats, there is still faint hope that they could take one Republican seat. Democratic hopes are pinned on Kentucky, where son of the Tea Party icon Ron Paul, Rand Paul, is taking on Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway. Even in reliably red Kentucky, Paul has struggled due to the original intent constitutionalism and the radical free market ideology that he stands for. While this race has been closer than expected, Paul now leads by close to 5% and Conway’s attacks on Paul’s college associations and pranks look increasingly desperate. It looks like the Democrats will have to rely on defense to get them through this one.

Bottom line for the Republicans? They need to lock up the three seats they are favored in (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Colorado), run the table in the tossup elections of Nevada, Illinois and West Virginia, and take either California or Washington while holding on to their lead in Kentucky.

Stay frosty folks. The next week and a half will be interesting.

Silver’s Updated Senate Rankings

Saturday, July 10th, 2010

Nate Silver’s out with his updated 2010 Senate election model.

This guy’s amazing.

He was the closest and most detailed predictor of the 2008 election results and he publishes his Senate elections model about every other month.

It’s obviously early, and this comes with many caveats but it’s fun to watch as the races develop.

This month brings no big changes in the predictions. While the top line numbers haven’t changed significantly, the Dem’s situation has been improved slightly by the primaries, with Sestak looking like a better candidate than Spector would have been and Sharron Angle’s nomination taking Harry Reid’s re-election from very unlikely to close to a dead heat. 

Also, Ohio could be the best chance for a Democratic pickup as Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher has consistently maintained a few point lead over former Congressman and Republican insider Rob Portman for a few months.

We’re also seeing a repeat of the Tea Party phenomenon, with the GOP nominating ideologically purer candidates that don’t poll as well against the Democrats. The latest example is in Colorado, where Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck now leads former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton in the race to take over Michael Bennett’s seat. Norton was the presumed Republican nominee and leads Bennett by a point or two in a potential general election matchup, whereas the Tea Party favorite Buck is slightly behind Bennett by the same margin. While this gives the Democrats a better chance, Buck is no Sharron Angle and his win would not be the game changer that the Angle nomination has been in Nevada.

Charlie Christ has thrown a wrench in the gears with his independent candidacy and no one knows who he would be caucusing with at this point (should be interesting to see how long that can last for). But this is all upside for the Democrats since Kendrick Meek stood a negligible chance of taking the seat from the Republicans.

However, West Virginia governor Joe Manchin‘s indications that he might hold a 2010 election for Robert Byrd’s seat might have an offsetting effect in the other direction. Silver is ballsy enough to take a initial look at that race without even knowing who the Republican candidates might be.

In my opinion, the biggest take away from Silver’s anaylsis is the importance of turnout. As Silver has documented ably, different models have different “house effects” and Rasmussen’s likely voter model consistently favors the Republicans. But Silver also notes that in an off year election in which Republican’s are increasingly motivated to turnout, it’s not inconceivable that the electorate would look like Rasmussen’s polling. So while Rasmussen’s polling might be a terrible way to measure how many American’s approve of the way the president is handling his job, it might have some predictive appeal for this election (which would be very bad news for the Democrats).

Like I said, these predictions should be taken with a handful of salt at this point. There’s plenty of evidence pointing to a potential wave election which would drown all of these 50% range Democrats.  On the other hand, if the economy shows signs of improvement in the next few months, or if John Boehner, Joe Barton and Rand Rand Paul keep calling it like they see it,  the American people might remember why they kicked the Republicans out in the first place.

Anyway, should be interesting to see these percentages shift as we get closer to election day.