Posts Tagged ‘Jon Huntsman’

Huntsmentum?

Tuesday, January 10th, 2012

Here’s Nate Silver on how Hunstman has the momentum, but may lack the time to capitalize on it.

I loved this exchange on Morning Joe. If you go to the last five minutes you can watch Harold Ford comparing Hunstman to a football player who looks great on paper, but just can’t keep up with the other players at the combine. Also, Joe Scarborough commenting on Huntsman unfathomable decision to reply in Chinese when challenged by Romney for being too soft on China…

Because there’s nothing that gets the Republican base as fired up as speaking Mandarin….

I almost fell out of my chair watching that one.

Mika Brezinski is quick to defend Huntsman, but Scarborough points out that “Ron Paul could explain the details of delivering a baby, but you don’t want him to so that on the stage…”

I have been impresssed by Huntsman at times, but he seems a bit too tepid for a Republican party that likes their tea hot and it’s hard to hard to see where Huntsman goes next if he clocks a 2nd place finish in New Hampshire. That being said, if his father continues to write checks,  he may have the ability to stick around for a little while.

The Fight for 2nd Place in New Hampshire

Saturday, January 7th, 2012

Students at St. Anselm College in Manchester serve as stand-ins for presidential candidates during rehersal for the ABC/Yahoo debate Saturday evening in Manchester, N.H.

Here’s Real Clear Politics Scott Conroy on the four way fight for 2nd place in New Hampshire. With Mitt Ronmney expected to win New Hampshire walking away, the focus now shifts to who will emerge as a possible challenger to him in South Carolina and beyond. Now that Perry’s support has collapsed in New Hampshire and throughout the country, the race for 2nd in NH comes down to Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman, and Newt Gingrich. To date Ron Paul has held 2nd place in New Hampshire, but is something close to a consensus that Paul’s floor of 15% isn’t far from his ceiling of about 25%. Meanwhile, Santorum, Gingrich, and Huntsman are all clustered at around 10%. 

If Paul comes in 2nd, this is good news for Romney, almost guaranteeing that the 2nd tier will continue to be divided bwtween a number of candidates, allowing Romney to continue to win primaries with pluralities.

If Santorum takes 2nd place by a large margin, that’s also not a bad scenario for Romney. It is possible that you will see the cultural right coalesce around Santorum as the social conservative in the race much as they did Mike Huckabee in 2008, with probably a similar outcome, a short run of primaries with Santorum making a symbolic stand against eventual nominee Romney.

If Newt comes in 2nd, look out. He’s taking the drubbing he took at the hands of Romney surrogates in Iowa personally and he’s on a one man mission to wound Romney. A head of steam going into South Carolina could once again make this a Gingrich-Romney race.

Perhaps the most interesting outcome would be a 2nd place finish for Huntsman in New Hampshire. While Huntsman isn’t expected to compete seriously in South Carolina, a strong Huntsman finish would setup a dangerous situation for Romney, with the conservatives continuing to snipe at him as the race moved on to other states and Huntsman waiting in the wings as the heir apparent of the “most electable” title. Just yesterday the idea of a Huntsman surge seemed unlikely, but a new ARG poll out today puts Huntsman in exactly that spot. Whether this is an outlier or a trend is still to be determined, but one thing is sure: New Hampshire is make a break for Huntsman. He’s staked his campaign on it and, if he doesn’t have a strong performance there, he’s done.

The stakes can’t be much higher for Romney’s four challengers. A new Time/CNN Poll shows him pulling away from the field in South Carolina and losing the nomination after wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina would be unprecedented for a Republican candidate.

Should make for an interesting debate tonight.