Posts Tagged ‘Yemen’

Dexter Filkins: On the Ground in Yemen

Sunday, June 5th, 2011

Tawakkol Karman, who led the protests in Sanaa, is one of the few grass-roots women leaders in the Middle East.
Here’s a Dexter Filkins article on Yemen and his Fresh Air interview on the same topic.

This is a little out of date, but it’s been on my To Do List and since we may be having a “regime change” there, I thought I’d post it.

This article has a number of themes that struck me. The first is how much of a tribal society many of these Middle Eastern states are, which I talked about in my last post.

The other theme is how easily democratic movements can be hijacked by extremist forces.

In his article, Filkins profiles Tawakul Karman, a mother of three who has helped lead the democratic protest movement in Yemen. On his recent trip to Yemen, Filkins visited Karman’s house in Sana, and noted that she had four photos on her mantle: Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King and Hillary Clinton.

One of the stories Filkins tells is how, attending one of the protests that occur regularly on the Karman’s Sanaa University campus, he saw a prominent Yemeni Islamist, Abdul Majeed al-Zindani, take the stage. Zindani praised the democratic youth movement’s struggles, but then proceeded to say where he thought would all lead. “The caliphate is coming! The caliphate is coming!” he  cried.

Karman was furious, saying that the protest leaders had a big argument about inviting Zindani, since “this is a youth movement, not a religious one,” but this observation leads him to a problem at the heart of the Arab Spring: 

Tvhe demonstrators who had gathered outside Sanaa University faced a dilemma: on their own, they did not represent the aspirations of Yemen’s twenty-three million people, but, the more the movement grew, the more Islamist it threatened to become. Seventy per cent of Yemenis live in rural areas, and most are deeply religious.

Glenn Beck’s paranoid rantings about Labor movements colluding with Islamist movements aside, the real issue here is how easily these democratic movements can be taken over by extremist elements as they expand from the universities and cities to the countryside. This is going to be an issue throughout the Middle East.

In a recent article in Salon.com, Fred Kaplan cites a study by political scientists, Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder which lays out the conditions for smooth and successful democratization:

These conditions include a literate population, a fairly prosperous and diverse economy, potentially democratic institutions (a functioning judiciary, free press, honest police, etc.), and a state apparatus capable of mediating and administering disputes among competing social and political groups.

This is not good news for Arab democracies in general and it’s even worse news for Yemen, a tribal society that has none of the above. When the Arab Spring protests started I thought that an Egypt-like uprising in Yemen could be the most dangerous for US interests. Not only is Yemen in a strategically critical location, it is also the headquarters of what is considered by many in the intelligence community to be the most dangerous branch of Al Qaeda: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

As much as I want to support the democratic aspirations of people like Tawakul Karman, we need to tread lightly here. The end result of this movement might not only be bad for the United States: it might also be bad for the democratic activists themselves.

Two Tribes Go To War

Sunday, June 5th, 2011

Reading about Yemen this week, I was reminded of Thomas Friedman’s article a few months ago in which he drew a distinction between

two kinds of states in the Middle East: “real countries” with long histories in their territory and strong national identities (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Iran); and those that might be called “tribes with flags,” or more artificial states with boundaries drawn in sharp straight lines by pens of colonial powers that have trapped inside their borders myriad tribes and sects who not only never volunteered to live together but have never fully melded into a unified family of citizens.

Among the secong group, Friedman includes Libya, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

This seems particularly true for Yemen. Despite the fact that there has been a real democratic movement in Yemen, the deciding factor in the removal of President Ali Abdullah Saleh may be a squabble with another powerful family that has strong tribal overtones.

Veteran Middle East reporter Dexter Filkins, in an recent interview with Terry Gross talked about the tribal balancing act that has kept President Ali Abdullah Saleh in power for 33 years:

to President Saleh, the Americans, al-Qaeda, you know, we’re just a couple more tribes he has to deal with… This is a tribal society and he’s constantly balancing one tribe against the other…al-Qaeda’s a tribe and like the Americans are a tribe. So he’s just playing everybody off against everybody else but the ultimate aim, of course, is keeping himself in power.

More on this idea later. In the meantime, it looks increasingly line Saleh’s balancing act may have run its course.

Arab Spring Spreads Across the Middle East

Sunday, March 27th, 2011

Juan Cole on the protests spreading across the Middle East:

Friday saw major protests in Syria, Jordan and Yemen, along with continued fighting in Libya. The Arab Spring has not breathed its last gasp, but rather seems to be getting a second wind. Protesters are crossing red lines set by governments and risking being shot. They know that movements are watered with the blood of martyrs. One of the major protests, in Deraa, Syria, on Friday was actually a funeral procession. But the Baathist regime created dozens more martyrs in response to being challenged. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh seems to have admitted he is outgoing, though he is bargaining with the crowds about the timing and circumstances.

Protests Grip Libya, Yemen and Bahrain

Saturday, February 19th, 2011

Here’s Juan Cole again, on the spreading Middle East protests.

The politics of Bahrain are particularly interesting. It’s a Shiite majority country that is ruled by a Sunni royal family and has had sporadic flare ups of political protest with a sectarian edge since the 1990′s.

While the country’s citizens are majority Shiite, there are actually more expatriates than citizens in Bahrain and many of them are Sunni Arabs, Pakistanis or South East Asians.

Once again, the United States’ rhetorical support of democracy is colliding with it’s national security interests. The US Fifth Fleet, which provided critical logistical support for the Iraq war as well as all other Persian Gulf operations, is headquartered in Manama, Bahrain.

Who’s Next?

Saturday, February 19th, 2011

Hopefully not Yemen.